Interest rates took a breather today after a sudden increase in bond rates over the last few days, causing an increase in mortgage rates. This is despite the June ISM Manufacturing Index suggesting a faster pace of contraction with manufacturing and an inflation update showing continued moderation in price growth.

Economists speculate that the jump was caused by the potential of a Trump win, which could lead to higher inflation, as well as a GOP sweep. When there’s a one-party sweep, there can be implications to Treasury supply.

The big data point this week is the June jobs report on Friday, which is expected to show the unemployment rate rising to the highest level since late 2021. Economists expect payroll gains to slow, from 272k in May to 200k last month.

Fed Chair Powell spoke today and expressed that the Fed needs more data before rate cuts begin. The Fed will continue its “meeting by meeting” approach.

Today’s national average 30-year mortgage rate is 7.13%.